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| Key lengths and brute-force attacks, part 4 | page 9 of 10 |
Alice's message is indeed fairly secure against brute-force
attacks. But maybe not quite as safe as we have
supposed here. When we start thinking about years of
brute-force attack, we really need to consider Moore's
Law. Moore's Law claims (generally) that
computing power doubles every 18 months. For each of the
last 40 years, people have declared an imminent termination
of Moore's Law, but let's suppose it continues on course.
That means that 30 years from now, the TLA (and the elderly
Mallory) will have a million times the computing power they
now have. So using the supercomputers of 2030, Alice's
message can be brute-forced in just 125 years. Still
probably not too much cause for Alice to worry, but what
about the supercomputers of 2045 that will be able to break
Alice's message in only a month? Nonetheless, Alice will not
likely worry all that much about this brute-force attack,
but it is noteworthy that 45 years is quite a bit shorter
than 125 million years.
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